The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its GDP growth forecast at 7% for the fiscal year 2024-25. Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted several factors contributing to this projection, including expectations of a normal monsoon, moderating inflation, and sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors. However, he also cautioned about potential risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and disruptions in trade routes. Despite these challenges, the outlook for agriculture and rural activity remains positive, supported by a good wheat crop and improved prospects for kharif crops due to expected normal monsoon conditions. Rural demand, improving employment conditions, and momentum in manufacturing and services sectors are expected to boost private consumption, while investment activity is projected to remain strong. The RBI expects real GDP growth to be 7.0% for the fiscal year, with risks evenly balanced across quarters. The governor also discussed global economic trends, highlighting resilience in the global economy with a stable outlook, albeit with challenges related to inflation and debt situations in advanced economies.
- RBI retains GDP growth projection at 7% for 2024-25 fiscal year.
- Factors contributing to the projection include expectations of a normal monsoon, moderating inflation, and sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sectors.
- Risks from geopolitical tensions and disruptions in trade routes are acknowledged.
- Positive outlook for agriculture and rural activity due to expected good wheat crop and normal monsoon.
- Private consumption expected to be boosted by rural demand, improving employment conditions, and momentum in manufacturing and services sectors.
- Investment activity projected to remain strong, supported by various factors including government expenditure and business optimism.
- Global economic trends show resilience with stable outlook, but challenges remain regarding inflation and debt situations in advanced economies.
