A possible future pandemic, termed “Disease X,” has sparked alarm among scientists, with influenza emerging as a likely candidate to trigger this global health crisis. An international survey, to be released next weekend, indicates that 57% of senior disease experts consider a strain of influenza virus as the most probable cause of the next worldwide outbreak of “deadly infectious illness.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) has long cautioned that seasonal flu is more than just a winter nuisance. It affects approximately 1 billion people globally each year, with millions experiencing severe complications and hundreds of thousands losing their lives. WHO officials stress that new flu strains, for which humans lack immunity, pose significant risks, and could potentially lead to a devastating pandemic.
Jon Salmanton-García, a researcher at Cologne University, reinforces these concerns. He suggests that influenza is the biggest threat to a future pandemic due to its constant evolution and mutation. He describes the annual flu season as a “series of mini-pandemics,” warning that future strains may be more virulent and resistant to current controls. Salmanton-García states, “Each winter influenza appears, you could describe these outbreaks as little pandemics. They are more or less controlled because the different strains that cause them are not virulent enough – but that will not necessarily be the case forever.”
Survey results and insights on “Disease X” will be announced at the upcoming ESCMID congress. The unknown virus could emerge suddenly, just like COVID-19, which has claimed millions of lives and continues to be a global threat. Adding to the concern is the rapid spread of the H5N1 strain of influenza, which the WHO describes as an “unprecedented surge” in cases. This strain has a fatality rate exceeding 50 percent, far higher than the current COVID-19 fatality rate of 0.1 percent.
John Fulton, a pharmaceutical consultant, expressed grave concern about H5N1, stating, “This appears to be 100 times worse than COVID, or it could be if it mutates and maintains its high case fatality rate. Once it’s mutated to infect humans, we can only hope that the [fatality rate] drops.”
The potential for a pandemic triggered by a novel strain of influenza underscores the urgent need for global preparedness and effective surveillance systems. While efforts continue to contain and mitigate the impact of COVID-19, scientists and health experts are increasingly focusing on the looming threat of Disease X. The future remains uncertain, but the growing consensus among experts calls for heightened vigilance and preparedness to combat the potential emergence of the next deadly pandemic.
