As Kerala wraps up public canvassing ahead of the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 26, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are all gearing up for a fierce battle in the state’s 20 parliamentary constituencies. According to political experts and opinion polls, the UDF holds a clear advantage in the 2024 elections.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the UDF triumphed with 19 out of 20 seats, thanks in part to the controversy surrounding the Sabarimala temple and Rahul Gandhi’s candidacy in Wayanad. This year, issues such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), ethnic riots in Manipur, and cooperative bank fraud in Kerala have shaped the election discourse. The UDF benefits from the lack of anti-incumbency, as it is not in power at either the state or central level, but the performance of its sitting MPs could be a weak point. By fielding 18 of its 19 sitting MPs, the UDF could face criticism for their lack of impact in Parliament and their constituencies.
The LDF has its own challenges to overcome. The CPI(M) faced setbacks in 2019, winning only one seat while experiencing a nearly 4% drop in vote-share. Although the party returned to power in the 2021 assembly elections with a strong showing, the Lok Sabha elections present a different challenge. The LDF’s efforts to mobilize voters could be hampered by the growing Hindutva sentiment in the state, which has shifted some traditional CPI(M) voters to the BJP.
The BJP, which has never won a Lok Sabha seat in Kerala, has made inroads into key constituencies, affecting both the UDF and LDF. Opinion polls predict a modest gain in vote-share for the BJP, but the party is still unlikely to secure a seat. However, its rising popularity among Ezhavas and other Hindu groups could influence the outcomes in several districts.
With opinion polls indicating a lead for the UDF, with varying seat counts, the coming elections will be a test of the state’s complex political landscape, marked by multi-party dynamics and shifting allegiances. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala are poised to be a closely contested battle, with all three political fronts vying for dominance.
